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New Mexico State

New Mexico State University · 2022 · FBS Independents

FanBoardHQ CFP
#93
Efficiency
-15.3
116th FBS
Record
7-6
Conf. record
2-0
Conf. finish
T-1st
of 7
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New Mexico State went 7-6 and was ranked 93rd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 97th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by an 114th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 54% of offensive plays with an 118th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 46% of plays with an 80th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-2
Q2
0-1
Q3
1-0
Q4
6-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 7.0 wins
Strength of Record
81st
-4.0 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
122nd
full season
122nd
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
3rd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~1.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs NevadaMountain West#126L 1223+6.00%-32.7Q4
1@ MinnesotaBig Ten#24L 038-29.80%-32.6Q1
2@ UTEPConference USA#107L 1320-5.00%-16.1Q4
3@ WisconsinBig Ten#47L 766-27.70%-29.6Q1
4vs Hawai'iMountain West#125W 4526+11.3100%4.7Q4
5vs FIUConference USA#121L 721+14.20%-44.2Q4
7vs New MexicoMountain West#128W 219+8.6100%-11.2Q4
9@ MassachusettsFBS Independents#131W 2313+8.6100%-14.2Q4
11vs LamarSouthlandW 5114+29.7100%2.8Q4
12@ MissouriSEC#60L 1445-23.80%-42.0Q2
13@ LibertyFBS Independents#71W 4914-13.5100%30.6Q3
14vs ValparaisoPioneerW 653+30.5100%-2.6Q4
Postseason
vs Bowling GreenMid-American#104W 2419+1.6100%-12.8Q4

13 played · 7-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on New Mexico State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-38.3-6.8+24.6-33-16-305-44-11-143-4231-3Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 80th
SR 96thYPP 83rdEPA 61st
RushingEff 118th
SR 126thYPP 98thEPA 113th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 104th
SR 117thYPP 98thEPA 102nd
Rush defenseEff 108th
SR 125thYPP 93rdEPA 100th
Dropback rate 46%Tempo -8.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 70th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 40%1st · Defense allowed: 40%1st2nd · Offense: 35%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 44%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 66.0Q1 · Allowed: 51.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 101.0Q2 · Allowed: 123.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 103.0Q3 · Allowed: 66.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 55.0Q4 · Allowed: 49.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledNew Mexico StateOffenseDefense
New Mexico State Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 97th
-5.3
Field position: -2.6Finishing drives: -2.7
Field position -2.6Finishing drives -2.7= -5.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 130th · Finishing 83rd

Defensive EffRanked 114th
-8.4
Field position: -0.7Finishing drives: -7.7
Field position -0.7Finishing drives -7.7= -8.4
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 92nd · Finishing 120th

2.18 points per drive on offense, 1.98 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(177)50% / 50%41%6.7
Q2(223)47% / 53%35%5.2
Q3(172)37% / 63%42%6.0
Q4(176)32% / 68%40%5.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(102)11.044%8.6
2nd(103)8.828%5.6
3rd(99)7.934%4.5
4th(11)3.873%11.2
All (315)37%6.4
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(226)9.738%5.2
2nd(141)7.140%5.1
3rd(62)6.450%5.1
4th(4)1.3100%9.5
All (433)41%5.2

New Mexico State, all games.